US job market biggest concern, payrolls likely negative: Fed’s Waller
Waller says he supports cutting rates by 0.25 point at each of the two remaining meetings this year
[WASHINGTON] Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said job growth has probably been negative for the last few months and the labour market is now his biggest concern.
“The labour market is weak, and that’s the punchline for policy. That’s what we need to know,” Waller told CNBC on Friday (Oct 10).
The September jobs report, scheduled to be released last week, was delayed due to the government shutdown. Waller said that data from private sources, such as jobs figures from ADP, are confirming the picture of a softening labour market.
“They’re not really representative, and they’re very specific, but they’re all telling you the same story,” he said.
Waller said he wants to continue cutting rates, but emphasised policymakers should be cautious. He noted that despite weakness in the labour market, economic growth appears to be strong.
US gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown at an annualised pace of nearly 4 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, according to a real-time model from the Atlanta Fed.
BT in your inbox
Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.
“Something’s got to give. Either the labour market rebounds to match the GDP growth, or that GDP growth is going to pull back,” Waller said.
“So that’s where the caution comes in,” he said. “I want to move towards cutting rates, but you’re not going to do it aggressively and fast, in case you make a big mistake on which way that thing’s going.”
For now, he said he would support lowering rates by a quarter percentage point at each of this year’s two remaining meetings.
SEE ALSO
“You can always adjust as you go, as the data comes in,” he said. “You can just do 25, keep going, see how it goes.”
Waller, appointed to the Fed by President Donald Trump in 2020, is a top candidate to succeed Jerome Powell when his term as Fed chair expires in May. CNBC reported on Friday that he is among five remaining candidates for the role. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been running the process and interviewing candidates.
Waller said during his appearance on CNBC Friday that he did not know whether he is a finalist or not. He said his interview for the job went well and that it was a serious economic discussion. He said there was “nothing political about it.” BLOOMBERG
Share with us your feedback on BT's products and services
