US job market flexes muscle; Fed still seen on hold

Published Sat, Apr 2, 2016 · 12:01 AM
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[WASHINGTON] US employment jumped in March, underscoring the economy's resilience, but an influx of Americans into the labour market could restrain nascent wage gains and maintain the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on raising interest rates.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 215,000 last month and the unemployment rate edged up to 5 per cent from an eight-year low of 4.9 per cent, the Labour Department said on Friday. The jobless rate increased as more people continued to enter or re-enter the labour market, a sign of confidence in the job market.

Average hourly earnings gained seven US cents after slipping in February. The labour market has largely shrugged off slowing global economic growth, a robust US dollar that has hurt manufacturing exports, and the negative impact of cheap oil prices on the energy sector.

Economists see a limited impact on monetary policy in the near-term from the strong jobs report, as the growing number of people entering the labour market supported Fed Chair Janet Yellen's view that hidden slack remained in the jobs market.

"This is an ideal situation for the Fed. The strong pace of job growth is being offset by the increase in entrants into the labour force, which will reduce any concerns about labour market tightness fostering outsized wage inflation," said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York.

The Fed also appears to be more focused on international developments. Ms Yellen said this week that slowing world growth and lower oil prices posed a downside risk to the US economic outlook, adding that she considered it appropriate for policymakers to "proceed cautiously in adjusting policy."

Fed officials last month downgraded their economic growth expectations and forecast only two rate hikes this year. The US central bank raised its benchmark overnight interest rate in December for the first time in nearly a decade.

Financial markets see a 27 per cent chance of a hike at the Fed's June policy meeting, a 52 per cent chance of such a move in September and a 65 per cent probability at the December meeting, according to CME FedWatch.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast nonfarm payrolls increasing by 205,000 in March and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.9 per cent. The economy created 1,000 fewer jobs in January and February than previously reported.

Prices for longer-dated US government bonds initially fell after the data, but later rose. The US dollar gave up earlier gains against a basket of currencies, while US stocks were trading mostly higher.

The jobs report came on the heels of recent data showing sluggish consumer spending and weak business investment on capital in the first two months of the year, as well as deterioration in the international trade balance.

Those reports prompted economists to slash their first-quarter GDP growth estimates to as low as a 0.9 per cent annualized pace from as high as a 2 per cent rate. The economy grew at a 1.4 per cent rate in the fourth quarter.

Other data on Friday showed manufacturing activity expanded in March for the first time in six months as new orders surged, suggesting the worst of the factory rout was over. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose 2.3 points to a reading of 51.8 in March.

Separately, preliminary reports from major automakers indicated US sales for March were well below expectations of a 17.50-million-unit rate.

"The economy is not great, but it's not falling off a cliff either," said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.


Wages increased last month, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3 per cent. That lifted the year-on-year earnings gain to 2.3 per cent from 2.2 per cent in February, a welcome development after the recent wobble in consumer sentiment.

Economists say wage growth of between 3 per cent and 3.5 per cent is needed to lift inflation to the Fed's 2 per cent target. Though the Fed's preferred inflation measure is currently at 1.7 per cent, Ms Yellen has expressed skepticism over the sustainability of gains, citing transitory factors.

The labour force participation rate, or the share of working-age Americans who are employed or at least looking for a job, rose a tenth of a percentage point to 63 per cent in March, the highest level since March 2014.

It has increased 0.6 percentage point since dipping to 62.4 per cent in September. About 2.4 million people entered or re-entered the job market since September, the second-largest increase in the labour force over a six-month period on record.

Participation rose across nearly all age groups as well as among men and women. The employment-to-population ratio increased to a seven-year high of 59.9 per cent from 59.8 per cent in February.

"This sharp rise in the labour force can only mean formerly frustrated people are coming back to the labour market as their job prospects have improved," said Harm Bandholz, chief US economist at UniCredit Research in New York.

But a broad measure of unemployment that includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment rose to 9.8 per cent last month from a more than 7-1/2-year low of 9.7 per cent.

Employment gains in March were broad-based. Manufacturing, however, lost 29,000 jobs, the largest number since Dec 2009, despite signs of stabilization in the factory sector.

Mining purged 12,000 more jobs last month. Mining payrolls have declined by 185,000 jobs since peaking in Sept 2014, with three-fourths of the losses in support activities.

Oilfield services providers Schlumberger and Halliburton Co have announced thousands of job cuts as they try to cope with reduced profits from a prolonged slump in oil prices.

Construction payrolls rose 37,000, increasing for a ninth straight month. Retail employment surged 47,700 after rising strongly in January and February despite weak sales. Government payrolls increased 20,000 last month.


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