US job openings decline to lowest level since early 2021
US JOB openings fell in September to the lowest since early 2021 and layoffs picked up, consistent with a slowdown in the labour market.
Available positions decreased to 7.44 million from a downwardly revised 7.86 million reading in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as Jolts, showed on Tuesday (Oct 29). The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for eight million openings.
Job openings have been on a downward trend for most of the past two years, and this report showed vacancies declined broadly across industries. The number of layoffs rose to the highest since January 2023, while fewer workers voluntarily quit their jobs – a sign of less confidence in their ability to find a new one.
The data run counter to the September employment report and other indicators that pointed to a still-strong labour market and economy, which prompted traders to pare back bets that the Federal Reserve will opt for another big interest-rate cut next week. A separate report on Tuesday showed US consumer confidence increased in October to the highest level since the start of the year.
The data precedes Friday’s October employment report, which may be difficult to parse given a strike by Boeing workers and a pair of destructive hurricanes. Payrolls are expected to moderate substantially from September’s blowout pace, while the unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.1 per cent.
Other major releases this week include the government’s first estimate of third-quarter economic growth as well as September inflation, rounding out the last batch of data before next week’s presidential election, in which the economy looms large. The Fed’s policy meeting is just two days later.
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The pullback in September vacancies was led by health care and social assistance, government and accommodation and food services – which is to be expected after the peak summer season.
The number of vacancies per unemployed worker, a ratio the Fed watches closely, held at 1.1, in line with levels seen in the strong labour market of 2019. At its peak in 2022, the ratio was 2 to 1.
One bright spot in the report was hiring, which picked up to the fastest rate since May. But it’s largely been on a downward trend from its latest peak in 2021. BLOOMBERG
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