A gauge of future US economic activity dropped for the 16th straight month in July, though the pace of decline slowed from earlier in the year, a survey showed on Thursday (Aug 17).

The Conference Board said its Leading Economic Index fell 0.4 per cent last month after declining 0.7 per cent in June. Last month’s decrease was in line with economists’ expectations.

“The leading index continues to suggest that economic activity is likely to decelerate and descend into mild contraction in the months ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The Conference Board now forecasts a short and shallow recession in the Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 timespan.”

Economists have been forecasting a recession since last year, but most now do not expect a downturn, with data ranging from retail sales to homebuilding surprising on the upside.

Inflation is also slowing, and the labour market is gradually cooling. REUTERS