US payrolls likely 306,000 lower than previously estimated

US job growth was probably less robust in the year through March than previously reported, according to government data released on Wednesday (Aug 23).

The number of workers on payrolls will probably be revised down by 306,000 for March of this year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) preliminary benchmark revision projection. The downward adjustment was smaller than some economists expected. 

The final figures are due early next year.

Last year, the government’s jobs reported showed hotter-than-expected payroll growth nearly every month. That persistent strength surprised economists time and again and was a key reason behind steady interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. 

While the preliminary estimate suggests that strength was overstated, it does not fundamentally alter the picture of a resilient and robust labour market that’s gradually cooling.

The biggest downward adjustments were in transportation and warehousing, as well as professional and business services. Retail and wholesale trade payrolls are estimated to be revised higher.

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Once a year, the BLS benchmarks the March payrolls level to a more accurate but less timely data source called the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages that’s based on state unemployment insurance tax records and cover nearly all of US jobs. BLOOMBERG