US payrolls likely to be 818,000 lower after preliminary revision

US JOB growth was probably far less robust in the year through March than previously reported, according to government data out on Wednesday (Aug 21).

The number of workers on payrolls will likely be revised down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March – or around 68,000 less each month assuming they’re distributed proportionately – according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision. While economists largely anticipated a decline, some predicted a loss of up to 1 million jobs.

The final figures are due early next year.

Benchmark revisions are done every year, but they were particularly scrutinised this year by markets and Federal Reserve watchers for any signs that the labour market may be cooling faster than originally report.

Several economists said the initially payrolls data may have been overstated by a number of factors, including adjustments for the creation and closure of businesses and how unauthorised immigrant workers are counted. BLOOMBERG