US small-business optimism falls on dimmer economic outlook

US SMALL-BUSINESS optimism fell to a three-month low in September as economic expectations dimmed and a smaller share of firms indicated it was a good time to expand.

The National Federation of Independent Business index slipped 0.8 point to 97.9, according to data out on Tuesday (Oct 13). Six of the 10 components that make up the gauge declined, while three rose and one held steady. A measure of uncertainty crept higher as well.

The net share of owners who expect business conditions to improve declined 4 percentage points to a four-month low of 6 per cent. 

Persistent price pressures continue to weigh on small businesses as military conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war keep energy costs high. Last month, 20 per cent of businesses said inflation was their single biggest problem, nearly three times the historical average of 7 per cent, according to NFIB.

A net 31 per cent plan to raise their own prices in the next three months, up from 28 per cent in August and July. 

With inflation stubborn and borrowing costs elevated, small businesses are more cautious about expanding. Capital spending plans dropped to a three-month low. 

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“Small-business owners are proceeding with caution as they interpret how rising costs, interest rates, and the difficulty in finding qualified employees are impacting their business,” NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said in a statement.

Some 26 per cent of firms, up 3 percentage points from August, said labour quality or availability was their single most important problem. BLOOMBERG