US weekly jobless claims surge amid seasonal adjustment challenges

[WASHINGTON] The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits surged last week, but that likely reflected difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations around this time of year, rather than a material change in labour market conditions.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped 44,000 to a seasonally adjusted 236,000 for the week ended Dec 6, the Labor Department said on Thursday (Dec 11). Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 220,000 claims for the latest week.

Claims had dropped to a three-year low in the prior week, partly attributed to difficulties adjusting the data around the Thanksgiving holiday. Economists continue to describe the labour market as being in a “no fire, no hire” state despite a raft of layoffs announcement by large corporations, including Amazon.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by another 25 basis points to the 3.50 per cent to 3.75 per cent range. However, policymakers signalled they will likely pause further reductions in borrowing costs as they sought clearer signals about the direction of the job market and inflation that “remains somewhat elevated.”

The US central bank has cut rates three times this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters the labour market “seems to have significant downside risks” noting there was an overcounting of nonfarm payrolls, which policymakers believed was still persisting.

In September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, the equivalent of 76,000 less jobs per month. The BLS will publish the final payrolls benchmark revision in February along with January’s employment report.

November’s employment report, delayed by the 43-day government shutdown, will be released next Tuesday. It will incorporate October’s nonfarm payrolls data. October’s unemployment rate will, however, not be available as the longest shutdown in history prevented the collection of data for the household survey, from which the jobless rate is calculated.

The labour market is easing amid low supply and demand for workers, which economists blamed on reduced immigration and on import tariffs. The adoption of artificial intelligence for some job roles is also eroding demand for labour.

The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped 99,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.838 million during the week ending Nov 29, the claims report showed.

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The so-called continuing claims suggest a gradual rise in the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4 per cent in September from 4.3 per cent in August.

The Fed’s new Summary of Economic Projections estimated the jobless rate at 4.5 per cent this year and easing slightly to 4.4 per cent in 2026. That was unchanged from September’s projections. REUTERS