What’s at stake as Trump sours on Ukraine’s Zelenskiy
US PRESIDENT Donald Trump has long said he would negotiate a quick end to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
His administration has appeared eager to seal a swift deal with Russia. It initiated bilateral negotiations with Russian officials that excluded Ukraine and European powers, and Trump himself has put pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to agree an end to the conflict.
This has raised suspicions among Nato allies that Trump will force Ukraine to accept Russian President Vladimir Putin’s terms, including a permanent Russian occupation of Ukrainian land.
Such a settlement would set a precedent that Europe has been anxious to avoid, as it may embolden Putin to invade more countries in his campaign to restore Russia’s Soviet-era sphere of influence.
How has Trump turned up the pressure on Zelenskiy?
On Feb 19, Trump insinuated that Ukraine was to blame for the war, when Russia had in fact started the conflict with its unprovoked invasion in 2022. He denounced Zelenskiy as “a dictator” who “refuses to have elections,” which Ukraine’s government postponed under martial law for fear of Russian interference and the challenge of organising a vote amid a war. Trump warned the Ukrainian president that he had “better move fast” to reach a deal with Russia “or he is not going to have a country left.”
What have Trump and his administration said about a deal to end the war in Ukraine?
In a September presidential debate, Trump sidestepped a question about whether he wanted Ukraine to succeed in its effort to expel the invading Russians. Instead, he said repeatedly during his reelection campaign that the fighting should stop and that he could end the war “in a day” through a settlement.
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Trump went further in December, saying Ukraine needed to reach a deal to end the war and brushed aside Ukrainian hopes of recapturing seized territory. More alarmingly, the US leader has suggested that Ukraine “may be Russian someday.”
As his vice-presidential running mate, JD Vance said in an interview in September that a deal would “probably” entail Russia retaining the land it has seized in Ukraine and Ukraine agreeing to renounce its goal of joining the Nato western military alliance.
New Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reinforced that message, telling Nato allies in February that Ukrainian membership of the alliance and a return to the country’s pre-2014 borders was unrealistic. Russia is also demanding that Ukraine become a neutral nation and significantly reduce the size of its armed forces to a strict limit.
Such an outcome would be hard to stomach for Zelenskiy, who has long said his country could not accept a frozen conflict or any trade of territory for peace. He later softened his stance by implying that Russia could – as a temporary measure to win peace – keep de facto control of some occupied territory.
Trump’s decision to agree on direct US-Russia negotiations to end the war breaks with the policy of his predecessor Joe Biden, who insisted that any peace talks must involve the Ukrainian leadership. It raises the possibility that Trump could impose peace terms on Kyiv by threatening to withhold US assistance. Trump has complained about the scale of support to Ukraine, without saying explicitly that he might cut it off.
He previously threatened Russia with punitive measures if it does not engage constructively in the peace talks but US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in February that sanctions relief for Russia could also be on the table based on the Kremlin’s willingness to negotiate. The two sides remain far apart, with the US calling for Europe to send peacekeepers to Ukraine and provide security guarantees for Kyiv while Russia rejects any Nato presence.
How has the US aided Ukraine?
Ukraine’s army is now Europe’s largest and most capable – aside from Russia’s – but it relies on the US for intelligence and arms, as well as financial support. The US has been the biggest provider of military aid to Ukraine, with more than US$64 billion delivered since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, according to the US Department of State.
The hardware the US has sent includes three Patriot air-defense batteries; 12 advanced NASAMS surface-to-air missile systems; more than 3,000 Stinger surface-to-air missiles; over 40 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems; hundreds of armoured vehicles, cannons and howitzers; three dozen Abrams tanks; and stocks of ammunition. The US has stopped short of giving Ukraine any of its own modern aircraft, while other Western partners have provided a small number of US-made F-16 combat jets.
The assistance is part of a total US$174 billion in American aid that includes financing to bolster Ukraine’s security, as well as assistance to US regional partners and European allies to replenish inventories donated to Ukraine. The US also has assisted the Kyiv government in removing landmines and helped to train and equip emergency workers.
What difference has the US assistance made?
When Russia launched the full-scale invasion, Ukraine was compelled to defend itself against a much larger army using an arsenal of mostly Soviet-era weapons. The infusion of US arms proved crucial to Ukraine in checking the initial Russian onslaught and keeping up the fight as the war dragged on.
In the most contested areas, Ukrainian assault troops deploy American Bradley Fighting Vehicles to storm Russian positions. HIMARS launchers give Ukrainian forces the precision to hit Russian targets behind the front lines. And Patriot air defense systems have helped Ukraine to shoot down some of Russia’s most advanced and deadly missiles.
Zelenskiy has complained repeatedly that the US support is sufficient to avoid defeat but not enough to prevail. Then Biden in November dropped his long-standing opposition to allowing Ukraine to use long-range US missiles to hit targets inside Russia. The decision, which the US said was in response to Russia’s deployment of thousands of North Korean soldiers, drew threats of nuclear escalation from Moscow. Trump at the time blasted the move as “crazy,” suggesting he could reverse it once in office.
Could Ukraine soldier on without US help?
If Trump were to cut off aid without doing enough diplomatically to force Russia to stop fighting, Ukraine would face the possibility of defeat. Its US-supplied tanks, missile launchers and air defenses would run out of ammunition in a matter of months.
Ukraine’s other key allies – such as Germany and the Baltic states – have said they will continue to support the country under any circumstances. But Europe’s assistance would not compensate for the loss of US backing and the region lacks the defense production capacity to substitute US weapon supplies.
The UK and France have started drawing up plans for a European-led “reassurance force” for Ukraine, to ensure that Russia does not attack the country again if a ceasefire and peace deal are negotiated. However, the plans are contingent on Trump agreeing to provide the force with US protection, including American aircraft and intelligence.
What has Zelenskiy said about Trump?
In the wake of Trump’s Nov 5 election victory, Ukrainian officials put on a brave face. Zelenskiy congratulated the US leader and hailed his “peace through strength approach” as a formula that could deliver a settlement.
Nevertheless, Zelenskiy has had an uneasy relationship with Trump from the start. He has tried a pragmatic, business-like approach in talks, proposing to grant access to Ukraine’s critical minerals in exchange for continued US protection.
But when Bessent presented a draft agreement in February that would have signed over half the value of Ukraine’s mineral and other resources, Zelenskiy turned down the offer, which included no detail of the proposed US support, calling it “not a serious conversation.”
In response to Trump’s criticisms of him, Zelenskiy said the US president had fallen victim to Russian “disinformation.” BLOOMBERG
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