Why Taiwan’s 2024 elections matter from Beijing to Washington

Taiwanese voters will do more than just choose their next president and legislature when they go to the polls in January 2024: They will help set the course for US-China relations for years to come.

China sees its eventual control of the self-governed island off its shores as a national security issue and doesn’t rule out the use of force to make it happen. The US has increasingly positioned itself as prepared to act to stop any such military move.

Taiwanese voters could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan’s political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path.

1. Why are tensions so high? 

China increasingly sees the US as abrogating its “One China policy,” which has been the basis of relations since 1979. That’s when Washington recognized the Beijing-based People’s Republic as the “sole legal government of China” and ended formal diplomatic recognition of Taiwan – without clarifying the US position on the island’s sovereignty.

While US officials say there is no change in policy, President Joe Biden has repeatedly said the US would come to the defense of Taiwan if it is attacked, breaking with a longtime stance known as strategic ambiguity.

GET BT IN YOUR INBOX DAILY

Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.

Sign UpVIEW ALL

The Pentagon estimated in 2021 that China wants its military capable of overrunning Taiwan by 2027, though it didn’t predict an invasion.

Meanwhile, China’s suppression of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement in 2019, despite a promise to preserve the former British colony’s autonomy, stoked fears about China’s intentions for Taiwan. China staged one of the biggest military drills ever seen around the island late last year. People in Taiwan also view Russia’s attack on Ukraine – which Chinese President Xi Jinping has avoided condemning – as a sign of what could happen to them.

The desire to take a hard line with China is a rare area of bipartisan agreement in Washington, where policymakers have sought to accelerate billions of dollars in arms shipments to Taiwan. 

2. What is China’s claim? 

Taiwan was colonized by European and Asian powers for centuries, and its current status has been in dispute since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. That’s when Chiang Kai-shek – leader of the Nationalist Party that ruled China following the 1912 overthrow of the Qing dynasty – fled to Taiwan, abandoning the mainland to Mao Zedong’s Communists. Beijing has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan ever since.

The island, which has a population today of 23 million, established a robust democracy to become a critical supplier of high-technology goods including semiconductors, the key component in much of today’s manufacturing. 

3. What’s at stake in the election?

President Tsai Ing-wen – who’s unable to run again because of term limits – has long drawn Beijing’s ire with her contention that Taiwan is essentially already a sovereign nation, even if only a handful of countries recognize it. China refuses diplomatic ties with those that recognize Taiwan.

Should her Democratic Progressive Party win, the US would retain a willing partner in its efforts to push back against China, and tensions could remain high.

A victory by the opposition Kuomintang party could de-escalate tensions, for a while at least. With a party charter that calls for eventual unification, the Kuomintang is China’s preferred negotiating partner. Still, the party knows that stance isn’t widely shared by voters. Polls show most Taiwanese people are happy to maintain the deliberately ambiguous status quo rather than seek unification or formal independence. 

4. Who’s running?

Vice President Lai Ching-te is the ruling party’s candidate. The Harvard-educated physician once described himself as a “political worker for Taiwanese independence.” He’s toned that down as Tsai’s deputy, however, and says his party’s goals are to boost the economy and safeguard peace.

The Kuomintang picked New Taipei City Mayor Hou Yu-ih, a popular local leader with little foreign policy experience. Hou has said he opposes Taiwanese independence, stating there’s no legal basis for it. At the same time, he rejects Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formulation for bringing the island under its control. That was the hands-off policy Beijing had promised for Hong Kong.

5. How are China and the US approaching the election? 

Beijing has generally dialed back the pressure on Taiwan in recent months in what’s seen as a bid to avoid alienating the public and perhaps boost the prospects of the Kuomintang. The party’s strong showing in local elections in late 2022 gave its supporters hope that they could reclaim the presidency. Such a result would ease Beijing’s concerns that Taiwan is drifting further from its grasp and could prompt it to lower tensions.

The US is expected to focus on calling for a free and transparent election without outside interference – as close as it’ll likely get to a warning to China. Appearing to choose sides would be bad form and possibly counterproductive. BLOOMBERG