Half time report: global trade under threat
Global trade is the key, and it could be swayed by US protectionism, China's rebalancing, Brexit negotiations and clashes in the Middle East.
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AS we predicted in our outlook six months ago, the first half of 2018 was marked by rising geopolitical tensions, major fiscal and political changes, and diverging monetary policy. These factors created a rise in volatility that was made more pronounced by the global economy nearing the end of its "Goldilocks" period - a time of sustained growth and low inflation.
As it happens, the mid-year point of 2018 matches up with the Fifa World Cup in Russia, where dozens of countries are engaging in friendly competition for football's ultimate prize. Each World Cup team has to use its own talent to combat challenges on the pitch. The same holds true economically, since each country must now rely on its own structural reforms instead of monetary policy to drive growth.
With the World Cup churning out several surprises (or shocks) just two weeks in, let's take a look at how some of these teams are playing out economically as 2018's half time approaches:
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