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Half time report: global trade under threat

Global trade is the key, and it could be swayed by US protectionism, China's rebalancing, Brexit negotiations and clashes in the Middle East.

While the world's two largest economies - the US and China - find themselves locked out of World Cup play this year, these two giants are still the teams to beat in economic terms. All eyes will be on China as it rebalances and on the US as it wrestles with late-cycle fiscal stimulus and additional political uncertainty.

AS we predicted in our outlook six months ago, the first half of 2018 was marked by rising geopolitical tensions, major fiscal and political changes, and diverging monetary policy. These factors created a rise in volatility that was made more pronounced by the global economy nearing the end of...

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