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Near-term outlook for China okay but credit excesses pose risks

Investors are looking forward to more reforms to open up the economy and shift the focus to domestic consumption.

HEADS UP Regardless of which money and credit measure we look at, be it broad money M3, private and public credit, or banks' credit money, all of them currently suggest that China's business cycle will experience a downturn next year.

CHINESE companies reported a sharp profit upturn in the second quarter this year. Total earnings increased by 18 per cent year on year for all listed firms. If banks and petroleum firms were excluded, profits would have been a lot higher at 36 per cent. The positive feedback loop between profits...

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