China closing in on US as leader in global science, study shows
Chinese researchers are expected to achieve leadership parity with the US before 2030
[MELBOURNE] China is on track to lead the world in science, at least by one revealing measure.
An analysis of almost six million research papers shows that Chinese scientists are taking the helm in almost half of all collaborations with US counterparts, a shift that underscores Beijing’s growing influence in setting the global research agenda.
The study, published on Tuesday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that Chinese-based scientists filled 45 per cent of leadership roles in US-China joint studies in 2023, up from 30 per cent in 2010. If the trend holds, China will reach parity with the US in 2027 or 2028, the point at which both sides lead an equal share of joint research.
Researchers at Wuhan University, University of California, Los Angeles, and the University of Chicago used a machine-learning model to identify which scientists directed projects based on contribution statements and authorship data. The approach offers a more nuanced way of tracking scientific power than traditional metrics such as publication counts or citation indexes, which measure volume rather than influence, the authors said.
Their perspective provides a lens through which to study China’s growing leadership in international science, “by focusing on the changing position of power of its scientists in their collaborations across international borders”, the researchers wrote.
The results suggest China is no longer just producing more science, it’s organising it.
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Scientific upheaval
The findings arrive as the US research establishment faces its deepest turmoil in decades. US President Donald Trump’s sweeping budget cuts and mass layoffs across federal science agencies have triggered an exodus of American researchers, prompting a global scramble to recruit them. Governments from Canada to Denmark have announced fast-track visa programmes and new funding to lure displaced scientists.
That upheaval could accelerate the shift, the study documents. The authors modelled what would happen if the US and China decoupled scientifically, halving or even ending their collaborations. In both cases, China’s global “lead share” would rise, because Chinese researchers are more likely to lead projects with European and other foreign partners than with the US, the paper said.
The analysis also found China gaining ground in strategic fields. In eight of 11 critical technology areas identified by the US National Science Foundation, including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, energy and materials science, Chinese researchers are expected to achieve leadership parity with the US before 2030.
Beyond that, China is using education as a tool of scientific diplomacy. Government data show it allocated about 33.3 billion yuan (S$6 billion) since 2012 to educate foreign students, mostly from Africa and South Asia, under the Belt and Road Initiative that China launched in 2013 to expand global trade links.
By 2018, almost half of all international students in China came from Africa and South Asia, and the paper finds that Chinese researchers now lead most collaborations with nations participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, including those students’ home countries. BLOOMBERG
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