The shoo-ins at the Oscars 2014

WINNING may not be everything at the 86th Academy Awards this weekend, but it comes mighty close. Unlike sporting events, there are no medals for second place in Hollywood and after an unusually long campaign - extended to avoid clashing with the Winter Olympics - having your name pulled out of the envelope will be doubly sweet.

It was a good year for cinema in 2013, with each of the nine films in the Best Picture category deserving of its nomination. Similarly, all the major categories are well represented and for once that cliched loser's phrase "It's an honour just to be nominated" holds true. This year's awards are equally notable for the people who were omitted (or snubbed): directors Spike Jonze (Her), J C Chandor (All is Lost) and the Coen brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis) for example, and in the acting categories Tom Hanks, Robert Redford, Oscar Isaac, Joaquin Phoenix and Emma Thompson, among others.

The awards will be broadcast live this Sunday night (Monday morning Singapore time) in 225 countries and in typical showbiz fashion there will be tributes (movie heroes is the primary theme), punchlines (Ellen DeGeneres will host) and an impressive display of cleavage (some of it real).

This being a Hollywood production, nobody goes home empty-handed and losers can take some consolation in the form of the Everybody Wins at the Oscars goody bag, valued at US$80,000 and handed out to the also-rans. Included this year along with the usual assortment of spa and anti-ageing treatments, resort vacations and luxury items are aerial circus lessons and the O (Orgasm) Shot, a procedure that "enhances the genital tissue of a woman".

And now, the envelopes please.

Best Picture

Each of the nine nominees has something going for it but Oscar pundits have long scripted this as a three-horse race among Gravity, 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle. A technically dazzling film about astronauts lost in space, Gravity had viewers going "wow" from its opening 13-minute sequence of a spacecraft orbiting the earth to its closing scene on a remote island. 12 Years a Slave, about a free Black man who is kidnapped and sold into slavery in the American South, is brutal and intense and hard to stomach in parts, but it is also beautifully made and impossible to ignore. American Hustle is a quintessential American movie about the art of the con: quirky, funny, bold and filled with memorable characters. The rest of the line-up - Captain Philips, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Nebraska, Philomena and The Wolf of Wall Street - will watch respectfully from the sidelines. The serious historical-human interest theme of 12 Years possibly gives it a slight edge, while no science-fiction film has ever won Best Picture. Still, there's always a first time.

Prediction: Gravity

Best Director

This is one of the major categories where there is a consensus choice of winner, and we're not inclined to go against the grain. Alfonso Cuaron turned Gravity into a breathtaking experience, a groundbreaking movie that raises the bar for science-fiction films by a metric mile when mere millimeters would do. That's not to detract from the fine work of David O Russell (American Hustle), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Alexander Payne (Nebraska) and Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street), but none would begrudge Mexican director Cuaron - who once aspired to be an astronaut - from picking up the Oscar.

Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron

Best Actor

Matthew McConaughey lost 20 kilos for his role as an HIV-positive cowboy in Dallas Buyers Club, while Christian Bale added weight (and a horrific comb-over) to inhabit the role of a confidence man in American Hustle. Chiwetel Ejiofor endured torture and unspeakable abuse as a slave who kept his dignity intact in 12 Years a Slave. Bruce Dern turned in a quietly subtle performance as a stubborn old man in search of lottery riches in Nebraska, while Leonardo DiCaprio roared as The Wolf of Wall Street. McConaughey's astonishing performance (which echoes Tom Hanks' 1994 win as an AIDs victim in Philadelphia) helped turn the low-budget Dallas Buyers Club into a contender and, coupled with his hilarious cameo in The Wolf of Wall Street, elevates him into the space reserved for Actor of the Moment in Hollywood.

Prediction: Matthew McConaughey

Best Actress

Despite the unnecessary distractions caused by allegations of impropriety in director Woody Allen's personal life, Cate Blanchett's turn as a delusional socialite struggling to stay afloat in Allen's Blue Jasmine remains the standout performance of the year.

Amy Adams (American Hustle), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena) and the omnipresent Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) make up a strong field, but Blanchett - with a performance as flawless as her complexion - will not be surpassed.

Prediction: Cate Blanchett

Best Supporting Actor

Michael Fassbender gives an acting masterclass as a plantation owner infected with evil in 12 Years a Slave, while Somali-American Barkhad Abdi made a stunning debut as a desperate fisherman-turned-pirate in Captain Phillips, gaining a nomination where Tom Hanks failed. Jonah Hill wisely accepted chump change (US$60,000) in return for a part in The Wolf of Wall Street, while Bradley Cooper is on a roll, earning a nomination for the second year running, this time for American Hustle.

The multi-talented Jared Leto took time off from his band Thirty Seconds to Mars to play a transgender prostitute in Dallas Buyers Club, and the move could pay dividends in the form of a little golden statuette. This is a category where Oscar sometimes springs a surprise, but we're betting that Leto sashays off with the prize.

Prediction: Jared Leto

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Lawrence must really like working with director David O Russell. For the second consecutive year, the 23-year-old has been nominated for a role in one of his films. It ended rather well for her last year when she won the Best Actress award for Silver Linings Playbook (co-star Bradley Cooper was also nominated).

This year however, she's up against the powerful force of 12 Years a Slave and newbie actress Lupita Nyong'o, whose role as an independent-minded slave girl has earned a slew of awards.

The veteran 84-year-old actress June Squibb made a splash as the crotchety wife in Nebraska and could conceivably sneak in at the wire, while Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) and Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) are rank outsiders in this race.

Prediction: Lupita Nyong'o

Predictions in other major categories

Best Original Screenplay: Her (Spike Jonze)

Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)

Best Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty (Italy)

Best Documentary Feature: The Square (Jehane Noujaim and Karim Amer)

Best Animated Feature Film: Frozen

Best Original Score: Gravity (Steven Price)

Best Original Song: Let it Go (Frozen)