300 days into Ukraine war, what next?

TUESDAY (Dec 20) marks the 300th day of the Ukraine war with as much uncertainty over the course of the conflict as there was during most of 2022.

Yet, while there remain many key unknowns, there are also fundamentals, too, that are most likely to continue to hold true during much of Q1 2023, before which time the war is likely to be conducted at a subdued level owing to the freezing weather on the battlefield. So these forces will shape the landscape in coming weeks, prior to what may be a full resumption of battlefield hostilities in spring 2023.

A first fundamental is that it seems neither side will win a decisive victory imminently. Historically, wars have tended to end in two ways: when one side imposes its will on the other on the battlefield, then at the negotiating table; or when both sides embrace a compromise they deem preferable to fighting. Unless something big changes in Q1 2023, neither of these outcomes is likely in Ukraine in coming weeks, especially as both sides are prepared to expend massive resources in the conflict.