500 days into Ukraine war, what business should expect next

AS THE Ukraine conflict nears its 500th day of grinding “war of attrition”, a slim but significant window of opportunity for peace may be opening up.

This potential window in autumn and/or winter 2023/2024, while not the most likely scenario, has the highest chance of being realised if the war of attrition continues for months more with heavier casualties taken by each side. Although neither Moscow nor Kyiv is showing strong signs, right now, of wanting to negotiate seriously, this could therefore change.

On Ukraine’s side, for instance, if its much anticipated counteroffensive yields little fruit, pressure may grow significantly in the West to explore a peace deal. There would be a lot of opposition to this, of course, but diplomacy may help smooth this process.