Amid prolonged uncertainty, ‘fragile recovery’ may be the new ‘cautious optimism’

GREEN shoots have finally emerged for Singapore’s key exports after a long winter, going by November data that showed a 1 per cent growth after 13 straight months of year-on-year contraction. Yet this prompted little cheeriness among keen-eyed analysts, who mostly stopped short of declaring that spring is here. Instead, they warned of downside risks and a “fragile recovery” ahead.

These days, that descriptor is applied to most economic indicators, whether global growth, trade or inflation. “Fragile recovery” seems like the new way of saying “cautious optimism”: a phrase that suggests better days ahead yet guards against false dawns, ultimately offering little certainty.

Indeed, a recovery can only be assumed if global macroeconomic circumstances stabilise and geopolitical tensions ease rather than escalate. But such “business as usual” conditions no longer seem usual. In an increasingly fragmented and fraught world, there is almost no telling how things will develop.