Australia’s nuclear subs deal versus its China trade ties

SINCE World War II, Australia has always looked to the US for its security. So it was again at last week’s Aukus deal with the US and Britain: it was to show Washington remains invested in its security.

The three-part accord will see US and British nuclear submarines make Australian port visits from 2027, when Australia would have built the infrastructure to host them. Then sometime in the 2030s, Canberra will get up to five used Virginia-class nuclear-powered boats – if the US legislature agrees to the sale. Finally, in the 2040s, Australia and Britain each will start building jointly designed nuclear-powered subs with some American components.

Several times in past decades, Australia has announced upgrades to its submarine fleet – all of which fell by the wayside. So there is some scepticism that this latest programme will get underway and be completed on schedule. Then there is the question of election cycles; none of the current leaders will be in office a decade from now. While British and American naval port calls may provide a sense of reassurance to Australians, such visits add nothing to Canberra’s own military capabilities. Substantive boosts to Australia’s military clout will come only when it gets those used subs, but that’s about a decade away.