Between war and rate cuts

DO YOU want the good news first, or the bad? More than a few jokes begin that way, and the line can also describe the world at present. After much anticipation, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates substantially in September, and markets bubbled to exuberance. This is not only in the United States but across many markets, including our region.

Yet in this same period, Israel struck leaders of Hezbollah as well as Houthi-held positions in Yemen, and began bombarding Lebanon, on top of the still ongoing assault on Hamas in Gaza. Iran, the backer of these groups, retaliated with a barrage of rockets and now there is concern of Israel retaliating, perhaps to directly strike Iran and even target oil production.

The US needs to actively intervene. But the US presidential race is entering the home stretch in a contest that remains too close to call and that has already witnessed two assassination attempts.