The big political show of 2024
ON YOUR marks, get set, go! Several men and women have indeed been gearing up for the race to the White House that will kick off on Monday, Jan 15 when the Iowa presidential caucuses, the first event of the primary election season, are due to take place.
No one is anticipating any dramatic shake-ups on the Democratic side where President Joe Biden is expected to easily beat the challenge from progressive activist Marianne Williamson and Representative Dean Phillips. Indeed, barring any major developments before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Aug 19, the current White House occupant will be elected as his party’s presidential nominee.
All eyes are therefore on the Republican primary race where former president Donald Trump continues to lead in most polls among Republican voters.
With two weeks left until the Republican caucuses, Trump expanded his lead in Iowa with more than half of likely Republican caucus goers naming him as their first choice candidate in the recent Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll.
Trump is the top pick for 51 per cent of those who plan to participate in the caucuses. Only two other candidates reached double digits: Florida governor Ron DeSantis rising to 19 per cent and breaking ahead of former United Nations ambassador and ex-South Carolina governor Nikki Haley with 16 per cent.
Ambassador Haley has been winning some political momentum in recent weeks, with opinion polls indicating that she appears to be gaining ground on Trump’s lead in the New Hampshire primary that is scheduled to take place on Jan 23.
According to a recent survey published by the Saint Anselm College Survey Centre (SACSC), Haley garnered 30 per cent of the likely Republican primary vote, just 14 points behind Trump’s 44 per cent support. It remains to be seen, though, if her Civil War flub at a New Hampshire town hall event last week would affect her standing in the polls.
Haley had hoped that a close race – perhaps even a win – in New Hampshire, to be followed by an expected victory in the primary in her home state of South Carolina on Feb 24, could provide her with more media coverage, fund raising and political momentum leading to Super Tuesday when primaries are scheduled to take place in 15 states.
That might have sounded very promising from Ambassador Haley’s perspective, but the electoral reality is quite different.
According to the pollsters at FiveThirtyEight, Trump is leading by more than 60 per cent among Republicans who plan to vote in the primaries, with Ambassador Haley and Governor DeSantis far behind, each with about 11 per cent of the vote. Even if one of them decides to drop from the race, the other would find it close to impossible to beat Trump.
The political reality is that the Republican Party has been transformed from one that had subscribed to the principles of internationalism, free trade and open immigration into the party of the Donald, a populist movement that advocates isolationism, protectionism and xenophobia.
And despite Trump’s many political scandals and legal problems, and amply clear evidence that he is utterly unfit to be president, the members of the GOP political base support him and therefore make it unlikely that any other Republican contender would be able to stop him.
The only one who could stop him in November is President Biden, and if one believes the latest opinion polls, even that isn’t at all a sure thing.
