A FEW weeks before the collapse of the American real estate market started in 2007, which brought about the global financial crisis, investment banker Nassim Taleb published The Black Swan, in which he claimed that unpredictable events may have decisive effects on the future, including political and economic crises that will change world history.

The theory developed by Taleb strengthened the assumption that it is difficult to predict the future. Or, to quote the legendary baseball coach Yogi Berra, “it’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future”.

After the publication of the book came a chain of unexpected events that changed our reality beyond recognition – a global economic crisis; the withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union; the election of Donald Trump as US president; the global pandemic; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; and let’s not forget Prince Harry’s marriage to Meghan Markle. Taleb became a celebrity intellectual and the black swan became one of the best known memes.

The colour of the swan that Taleb spoke of made everyone think that he referred to only destructive events, like wars or pandemics. If he had used the adjectives “red” or “green”, the swan could also represent unexpected events that would be welcomed by us, such as the end of the war in Ukraine, a decrease in the level of inflation, the collapse of the populist wave, or the sudden disappearance of Harry and Meghan from our lives.

This rainbow of colours is now diversified by another investment banker, economist Ruchir Sharma, who added the “blue bird” to the list of memes. Sharma’s bird symbolises an unexpected event that will be a shock, but that will be perceived as positive and will move the world towards a better future. So, after all the furious prophecies of well-known experts, let’s call on the Blue Bird, and imagine some optimistic scenarios for 2023.

First, the populist wave will continue to weaken After the defeats of Trumpism in the midterms and the appointment of a technocrat with a Stanford MBA as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, there are clear signs that almost everyone is simply tired of populism. The prime minister of Italy who was suspected of fascism is acting according to the dictates of Brussels. And the destroyer of rain forests who was president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, will probably continue to spend time in a Miami hospital. In the end, we discovered that there is no “populist bloc” when the regimes in Warsaw and Budapest find themselves on the other side of the fence against Putin regarding the war in Ukraine.

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Secondly, there will be no war between China and the United States. Unlike Russia, whose gross domestic product is smaller than that of Italy, China, the world’s second largest economy, has much more to lose from a military conflict with the Americans. If anything, the main interests of the Chinese now is to stabilise their economy post-pandemic, and tensions in relations with Washington will harm this.

Thirdly, a possible ceasefire in Ukraine and the improvement of relations between Beijing and Washington will serve as injections of momentum to the global economy and to a sharp drop in energy prices. The Fed will start lowering interest rates, causing joy and jubilation on Wall Street. And who knows? Maybe Harry and Meghan are out of our lives.