Catching tailwinds for business and investors : Why demographics matter more than ever 

IN NOVEMBER 2022, the United Nations announcement that the global population had crossed the eight billion mark brought out the usual fearmongering regarding overpopulation, food shortages and environmental destruction. But what if this is the last flourish for population increases and, 50 years from now, we will reminisce of countries and economies that once grew?

The UN’s gargantuan figure does not paint a complete picture of current demographic trends, nor does it capture the fact that many countries are on the cusp of a significant decline in population growth.

Take South Korea, where the population peaked at around 52 million in 2021. If the country’s fertility rate rebounded to 2.0 babies per couple (the current fertility rate in Vietnam, India and Bangladesh), the population would replenish itself indefinitely, neither rising nor falling. However, this is far from reality, as the last time South Korean couples conceived at least two babies each was four decades ago in 1983. If South Korea maintains its current fertility rate of 0.78 babies per couple, population decline will soon accelerate.