China’s pivotal plenum shows long game, but can it overcome its soft-power wall?

NOVEMBER marks the 13th anniversary of President Xi Jinping’s elevation to general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. In the years since, as China’s fourth plenum last week highlighted, much has changed in the global political and economic landscape – including international perceptions of the balance of power and Beijing’s place in it.

However, it is not only Xi’s role at the apex of the Chinese political elite that has been a major constant during this period. Beijing’s grand strategy has also remained consistent: a longer-term, gradualist transition to power intended to allow the nation to grow stronger over an extended horizon.

A strategy of patience

This long-term approach was a major thread at the plenum, which could prove historic, as Beijing prepares a new, 15th five-year plan for release next year. This will be a 2026 to 2030 blueprint for China’s economic and social development with several key elements dialled up, including artificial intelligence (AI) and broader technology self-sufficiency.