AN old fund manager friend told me in October last year that it was probably time to load up on stocks.

The US Federal Reserve was hiking rates at a torrid pace of 75 basis points each time. Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds had pushed above 4 per cent. And, the S&P 500 Index had closed as low as 3,577.03 on Oct 12, 2022.

My inner bear demurred. It seemed unlikely to me that inflation could be quelled without a deep slump in economic activity and corporate profitability, which was not yet apparent. Also, I feared pockets of excesses built up during the long period of ultra-low interest rates might unwind in a disorderly manner amid the rapid tightening of monetary policy.