150 days in, where now for the Ukraine conflict?

The Ukraine conflict entered its 150th day over the weekend and, despite a breakthrough food export deal agreed between Ukraine and Russia last Friday (Jul 22), there remains little certainty on the likely length or outcome of the war. Nevertheless, there are some big clues as to how the next steps will unfold. In the coming weeks, it is unlikely that either side will win a decisive victory imminently. 

That is, for as long as Russian President Vladimir Putin is prepared to expend huge resources in the conflict, and while Ukraine continues to be supplied extensively by the West. It is estimated more than 50,000 Russians have already died or been injured, while the United States alone has provided more than US$50 billion in resources to Kyiv, larger than Australia’s annual defence budget. 

The most likely scenario in the next few weeks therefore is probably a continued “war of attrition” into the fourth quarter of this year. This could even see the conflict lasting into 2023, albeit potentially at a lower fighting tempo.