2014 ends with uneasy truce in East Asia

AN uneasy truce settled over East Asia as 2014 drew to a close. Not that nations had declared hostilities, but tensions bordering on physical friction had become prevalent in the case of Japan, China and South Korea and these appear to have been put on hold. Even Seoul has begun tentative reunification overtures towards Pyongyang.

To refer to these stresses and strains as the "growing pains" of the region might be to flatter them with too positive a description. But they do appear to be a manifestation of a new status quo emerging, with China being accepted as a superpower while Japan adjusts to a new post-war order. It might sound dismal to characterise the situation as the start of a new "balance of terror", as was long the case between a nuclear-armed US and the former Soviet Union. But that balance at least allowed the two powers to coexist, on the basis that each could secure the other's destruction.

The stand-off that appears to be emerging now is one where Japan will avoid provocative acts such as visits by its prime minister to Tokyo's controversial Yasukuni Shrine while it builds up its military power, and China will do likewise while consolidating its own military and economic power. This is probably the best that can be hoped for, given the tectonic shifts implied by China's rise and the need for Japan to accommodate and adjust to that situation without inviting disastrous conflict. And it does offer breathing space for wiser counsels to prevail on both sides.