2020: Likely no let-up in turbulence and manoeuvres in South China Sea

BEIJING'S decision to deploy its new aircraft carrier, the Shandong, in South-east Asian waters is an unmistakable push against US naval presence in the region.

China's first aircraft carrier built entirely in the country, the Shandong is the largest warship in its arsenal. The new vessel left Dalian last month, passed through the Taiwan Straits, traversed the South China Sea and then arrived in Sanya, its home base. Its voyage was clearly designed to send a message to Taiwan, which is in the throes of an election campaign, and to all the other nations with claims in the region as well as to the US Navy.

Typically, to boast a world-class navy, China would need a minimum of three aircraft carriers - at any one time, the first carrier would be at sea, the second would be completing its sea deployment and the third would be in dock for maintenance and upgrades. China looks set to construct a fleet of three to six more aircraft carriers. Beijing has also been deploying vessels that look like fishing trawlers but are actually part of its maritime militia. Then, there is Beijing's military base in Cambodia, still under development, which when completed would be its first naval foothold in South-east Asia.