Abe may well end up joining 'losing leaders' with election gamble

ELECTION outcomes are proving to be capable of producing shocks - witness, for example, Theresa May's effective defeat in the UK and Angela Merkel's setback in Germany. Japan could well be next to see its leader, Shinzo Abe, emerge from an election significantly weaker than he goes into it.

The chances of Mr Abe taking a drubbing appear quite high as he prepares to take his controlling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) into a snap election on Oct 22. Politically savvy as his election gamble may appear, Mr Abe appears to have misread the mood of his country. Seeing an opportunity to capitalise on the war fears that have gripped Japan in the wake of recent North Korean missile launches (fears he has done little to quell), along with the disintegration of the main opposition Democratic Party, Mr Abe has seized his chance.

The Japanese have no desire to be left at the mercy of a weak and divided political opposition while (as many seem to see it) a deranged North Korean leader sends ballistic missiles soaring over Japan and threatens the key US ally with destruction. Mr Abe sees himself as the leader of choice, strong and able to defend his country while also promising new economic goodies and social reforms if he is returned to power. But what commentators see as Mr Abe's anxiety to cling to power may have blinded him to political reality.