Abegate may be just the tip of the iceberg

NOW that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife, Akie, have denied involvement in a land sale to a controversial Osaka school, and rejected allegations that they donated to the establishment, it may seem that the matter is at an end. But this is by no means assured.

The affair is of byzantine complexity but basically it centres upon why a school with a highly "nationalistic" curriculum and which taught pupils to revere Mr Abe, and to which Mrs Abe allegedly gave a financial donation, was able to acquire state-owned land at a deeply discounted price. The critical, and so far unanswered, questions are why the so-called "Abegate" affair came to light when it did, and who played the leading role in bringing it to light. The move was clearly not motiveless. A game is not lost at the opening gambit and the "end game" is probably yet to come. The next step could be for opposition parties to Mr Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to submit a no-confidence vote against him in parliament. This would almost certainly fail, given the super-majority his coalition commands, but the smear tactic would leave its mark.

That matters, because of the timing. Tokyo gubernatorial elections are due in July and Abegate may influence the outcome. Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike has often been mentioned as a challenger to Mr Abe for the LDP leadership and to become Japan's first woman prime minister.