Acceptable political settlement is only long-term solution to Philippine unrest

NO one should have been surprised that Marawi militants are on a new bid to set up a South-east Asian caliphate in the southern Philippines. The commander of the task force protecting the recaptured city said that the region remains fertile ground for Islamic State recruits. A few days earlier, an Islamic leader warned that a takeover of another city, Marawi style, might happen again.

Clearly, the underlying problems of the region have not been resolved. And it goes back generations. In fact, the Moro people do not consider themselves Filipinos. The Spanish colonisers never fully managed to subjugate the Moro population. When the US took over in 1898, the south proved the most difficult to subdue. The Americans used land laws to marginalise the Muslim population. When independence came in 1946, Manila continued with these policies. Thus the Muslims remain alienated from the political system that operates out of Manila, where the Catholic majority holds sway. Following Marawi, the Duterte administration proposed to change the constitution to pave the way for a federal system of government. A proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law that would grant autonomy to Muslim majority regions under this federal system is still wending its way through the legislature. There is no indication of when these laws will be enacted. Similar proposals have stalled in the past.

So when Murad Ebrahim, leader of of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which made peace with the Manila government, issues a warning, his words should be heeded. His movement, with about 10,000 members, signed a peace deal in 2014 after decades of guerilla warfare in Mindanao that had claimed more than 100,000 lives. Now, he said, he is facing rebels aligned to the Islamic State for the hearts and minds of angry young Muslims. Furthermore, the defeat of the Islamic State in the Middle East has created the need for a new base, and southern Philippines is deemed promising. Cash and jewellery looted from Marawi during the five-month siege are being used to pay new recruits. And the jihadists are finding willing fighters from Malaysia, Indonesia and other trouble spots. As well, he warned that the region was awash with weapons because of a combination of weak central government presence, long-running family feuds and rebel activity.

None of this is to say that regional governments are unaware of the problem. Coordinated naval patrols and information sharing among Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines have been going on for more than a year. It was an important step in regional cooperation on counter-terrorism and counter-piracy. Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines have now instituted an intelligence sharing programme. Under the Our Eyes initiative, senior defence officials meet every fortnight to exchange information on militant groups and develop a common database of extremists known to be operating within their own borders.

But is this enough to prevent another attempt to establish a caliphate in southern Philippines? Post-Marawi, it is clear there was a catastrophic failure of intelligence - both of the Duterte administration and the US military which maintains a presence in the region under the guise of rotating joint exercises. Neither noticed months of rebel activity in building up stocks of weapons. What hope is there that they will do any better the next time?

Truth be told, the only long-term solution is a political settlement that the Moro people will accept. The sooner the autonomy laws are passed, the better the chances of avoiding further bloodshed.