After Abe assassination, Japan’s Kishida must forge his own path

SYMPATHY and outrage over last Friday (July 8)’s shocking assassination of Shinzo Abe obviously contributed to the sweeping victory of his Liberal Democratic Party in upper-house elections over the weekend. However much he owes the former prime minister, though, Japan’s current leader, Fumio Kishida, must now find his own path.

An unemployed 41-year-old veteran of the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force confessed to targeting Abe for his supposed ties to an unspecified religious group. He appears to have used a handmade firearm, stunning a nation unaccustomed to gun violence. Abe himself was a towering figure — modern Japan’s longest-serving leader, credited with shaking the country out of its post-bubble doldrums and returning it to a position of active leadership in Asia. The repercussions of his death will reverberate well beyond Sunday’s vote, in which the LDP and its coalition partner claimed at least 76 out of 125 contested seats.

As Japan reels from the loss, Kishida must show the country that he, too, can lead. He enjoys a solid electoral mandate and time — three years until the next scheduled vote. Yet simply adopting Abe’s agenda would be unwise. More than two-thirds of the upper house is likely to favour revising the constitution, for instance, but attempting to do so without clear public support could consume valuable political capital. Similarly, doubling the share of defence spending in five years — a target pushed by Abe — might well be too much for the Japan Self-Defence Forces to absorb, leading to wasted effort and funds. Kishida should certainly continue efforts to modernise Japan’s military, including by developing long-range strike weapons and improving missile defences. But he should pace any increased military spending carefully, with an eye to addressing gaps not already covered by Japan’s alliance with the US.

Kishida can also set himself apart by helping to revive ties with neighbouring South Korea, riven by disputes over Japan’s responsibility for wartime forced labour and other abuses. The new South Korean president, Yoon Suk Yeol, has begun to take steps toward a compromise that would satisfy both Japan and South Korean victims. If those yield fruit, Kishida should meet him halfway, isolating the historical issue and focusing on practical cooperation against the shared threats both countries face, from North Korea to a possible invasion of Taiwan.

Perhaps most important, Kishida now has a chance to flesh out his own economic vision for Japan. He has called for a fairer and more inclusive “new form of capitalism” that can tackle inequality, in contrast to Abe’s focus on growth. What’s needed most immediately are practical measures that can have an immediate impact, not airy slogans. Greater tax incentives for angel investors would aid Kishida’s push to increase the number of Japanese startups. Raising the minimum wage could have a powerful ripple effect and bolster consumers’ spending power. So would tasking labour inspectors with enforcing often-ignored equal-pay rules. Ultimately, Kishida will need to tackle tougher reforms even Abe couldn’t manage, including to Japan’s rigid, seniority-based employment system.

Japan would not be the country it is today — diplomatically, militarily and economically — had it not been for Abe’s vision and drive. Kishida can best respect that legacy by forging his own. BLOOMBERG