America's friends need to pay heed: the hegemon is no more

THE concept of "recognition lag" is familiar to economists. It refers to the time lag between when an actual economic change occurs and when it is recognised by economists.

Just like changes in economic conditions, changes in the global status of nations are not always immediately apparent. These misconceptions about the changing international balance of power also tend to affect the direction of the global Zeitgeist, as elites assume that what is, will always be.

Hence as the sun was setting on the British Empire in the aftermath of World War II, its leaders continued to live under the illusion that their nation remained a paramount global power. If you travelled in a time machine back to 1949, and skimmed through the pages of the international press, you would come across numerous references to Britain as a Great Power. The time lag between the effective end of the British Empire and the recognition that indeed it was all over, proved to be quite lengthy.