Are Europe's prospects brighter than they appear?

London

IN THE year since US President Donald Trump escalated America's trade war with China, policymakers and financial markets have been obsessed with the dangers to both countries' economies. Yet the real threat the conflict poses to the global economy lies elsewhere.

Despite all the lurid headlines about the trade war causing a recession in the United States or some kind of collapse in China and its Asian neighbours, recent data reveal a very different picture: the US and Chinese economies have performed quite decently and in line with trends that were already well-established before the escalation of the trade war. The main victim has been an innocent bystander: Europe.