Asia's geopolitical realities are changing

WHILE not (yet) perhaps amounting to a "tectonic shift" in the geopolitical foundations of North-east Asia, recent developments such as the chilling of relations among regional powers and the hint of a new Cold War between the US and Russia certainly represent more than glacial changes.

It is possible now to envisage a scenario whereby US President Barack Obama's "pivot toward Asia" is delayed, if not derailed, by the need to bolster European security and where China emerges in a stronger position as already strained US relations with Japan move onto a side burner. Even before Russian President Vladimir Putin moved to annexe Crimea, challenging the status quo of global power in the process,the US pivot was looking shaky as growing tensions among Japan, China and South Korea threatened to drag Washington into unwelcome potential conflicts. A perceived need to reinforce Nato in Europe as post Cold-War detente gives way to new animosities and potential conflicts with Russia, plus ongoing problems in the Middle East, will inevitably pose global challenges to the international role and reach of US forces.

All this comes at a time when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's assertive stance vis a vis China and South Korea has brought Tokyo's relations with both Beijing and Seoul to a low ebb, implying that demands on an already stretched US to act as global policeman will increase. China can hardly have failed to see the implications of the situation and recent events imply that Beijing's relations with another master of the geopolitical chess game, Moscow, are growing closer. This could have profound implications for the regional balance of power in Asia.