Be prepared for the fallout after Trump's decision on Jerusalem

THE meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) on Jerusalem went predictably. US President Donald Trump's decision to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to the Holy City was denounced in no uncertain terms.

As a counter move, OIC leaders meeting in Istanbul last week declared East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine and called on the rest of the world to follow in their footsteps. There was much rhetoric about the status of Jerusalem being a red line. An Arab-Israeli lawmaker even called on the summiteers to expel US ambassadors in response. In the event, the OIC leaders departed quietly without any real strategy to deal with the new US stance. Despite earlier threats, the summit's host Turkey has maintained diplomatic ties with Israel. No one took the Arab-Israeli's proposal about curbing ties with Washington seriously.

Truth be told, the whole issue of Israeli occupation of Palestine is no longer a priority for most neighbouring Arab nations. Some have made peace with Israel. Others have covert ties. The Palestinian cause is lost; there is no serious prospect for a comprehensive settlement. The 2.8 million Palestinians in the occupied territories will continue to live under Israeli military rule because the occupied territories are also home to more than 500,000 Israeli settlers. No government in Israel can be seen to abandon them and survive politically.

So, Mr Trump's decision will not make an iota of difference on the ground. Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law and senior adviser, was supposed to have been working on a peace plan that would include other regional players such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Until Mr Trump's Jerusalem statement, there was a belief that both the Palestinians and the Israelis would at least be seen to be playing along, perhaps the better to blame the other side when the peace process collapses. Now the Palestinian side has declared that the US has forfeited its role as a mediator. The Palestinians refused to meet US Vice-President Mike Pence who was dispatched to explain the White House's new position. And that effectively means that the status quo will prevail, despite what the US administration's spin doctors say about the prospects for a peace settlement.

The reality in the Middle East is that Sunni Arab leaders are far more consumed by the perceived threat of Shi'ite Iran. Sunni leaders find it galling that Teheran may be gaining some support among Shi'ites within their own countries. Worse, wealthy Qatar and Oman do a fair bit of business with the Iranians, breaking Sunni solidarity. As well, several major Arab nations use Israeli technology and intelligence services in their confrontation with Iran. It has even been suggested that Mr Trump would have sounded out his Jerusalem decision with key Arab leaders before making the announcement and had probably been assured that they would be able to manage the ensuing political fallout.

So, if it is all about political choreography, does Mr Trump's move really matter to anyone, apart from the Palestinians? Yes, it does. Anti-American sentiment among Muslims around the world is real. For a sampling, just look at the continuing demonstrations in Jakarta and elsewhere in Asia. Mr Trump's announcement adds to Muslims' sense of grievance and helplessness; fellow Muslims are being openly subjugated and humiliated, and their own leaders cannot - or are unwilling to - do anything about this situation. Thanks to social media, this rage is likely to be channelled into acts of terrorism. Everyone should be prepared.