Becoming anti-fragile in the age of chaos

Charlie Ang

SINCE the turn of the decade, we have already witnessed two unforeseen crises of epic proportions: the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine invasion. According to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Covid-19 is “a global health crisis unlike any in the 75-year history of the United Nations”. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is the largest armed conflict in Europe since the end of WWII, elevating nuclear tensions arguably to the highest levels since the Cuba missile crisis at the height of the Cold War.

Both events unleash lasting shockwaves across economic, political, and social dimensions. Their effects are compounded when one crisis is overlaid on top of the other. The consequence, as Senior Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam recently lamented, is that “we are facing risk and fragility that is unprecedented in the last 80 years”.

To comprehend this upsurge in chaos, we must analyse the tectonic shifts that are in motion. Today’s dominant operating systems are beset by the fourth industrial revolution, climate emergency, geopolitical reordering and ageing demographics simultaneously. The US-led international order, capitalist superstructure and liberal democratic politics are reaching breaking point and in urgent need of upgrade.

Systems can be transformed by choice or by circumstances, and through convergence or conflict between status quo and emergent forces. During systemic metamorphosis, stability declines, disorder cascades and change accelerates. The result? Events that are more erratic, precarious, and forceful.

In this age of extreme uncertainty and recurring disruptions, how can our country, companies and citizens prevail, or better still, prosper? The answer lies in antifragility, a radical approach to deal with chaos, as explained by Nassim Taleb’s groundbreaking book “Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder”. Fragile things, a glass for instance, break upon impact, and resilient ones, like a basketball, can withstand it. Antifragile systems, by contrast, strengthen and benefit from such shocks.

An example is our human brains, which expand with every novel encounter, difficult challenge, and stressful situation. Life on earth is extraordinarily anti-fragile, regenerating into more advanced forms through evolution in a hostile and dynamic biosphere. Legendary giants of the past century, such as Lee Kuan Yew, Franklin Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, Deng Xiaoping, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King, Nelson Mandela, and Bruce Lee, were moulded by harsh circumstances in the most difficult of times.

While the antifragility term is new, this thinking is hardly alien to Singapore. In fact, our founding story was an exceptional demonstration of antifragility. Although our separation from Malaysia was abrupt and dire, it allowed us to disengage from divisive federal politics, resolve racial discord and unite our people for nation building. As Lee Kuan Yew proclaimed during his separation speech on 9 August 1965: “We are going to have a multi-racial nation in Singapore. We will set an example”. Ejected from our geographic hinterland, we went on to forge an economic hinterland out of the entire world.

A hallmark of anti-fragility is the ability to learn from past shocks, seize ensuing opportunities, and emerge stronger from them. Winston Churchill famously said while working to form the United Nations after WWII, “Never let a good crisis go to waste”. Singapore has been stepping on the shoulders of successive crises to rise to new heights.

The withdrawal of British forces in 1971 posed serious defence and economic challenges for Singapore. Thankfully, we were able to rapidly build up the Singapore Armed Forces from ground zero into an effective deterrent force and accelerate industrialisation to fill the economic void, which amounted to 20 per cent of our gross national product then.

The SARS pandemic was another useful wake-up call. From it, Singapore established robust healthcare redundancies and protocols in anticipation of the next pandemic. When Covid-19 struck, Singapore, along with other SARS-affected Asian countries, was better prepared to respond to the health crisis than most.

The antifragile approach is similarly applicable to businesses, individuals, and even to our children. While it encompasses the best practices of resilience, such as eliminating a single point of failure, building sufficient reserves, and developing mental fortitude, it goes beyond that. Here are three strategies to be anti-fragile.

First, anticipate and prepare for systemic changes before they happen. External changes are always more positive when you receive them at the door, instead of them crashing through it. Shift to the new mindsets, formulae and capabilities needed to thrive in the fluid environment transformed by the megatrends listed above, earlier rather than later. For instance, Skillsfuture Singapore has identified the digital, green and care economies as high growth areas with long-term demand for specialised skills.

Second, plan for the bad times when times are good and plan for the good times when times are bad. During flourishing periods, do not over-extend, become complacent or take excessive risks, while efforts should be made to cultivate trusting relationships, alternative options, and new skills. In times of crisis, do not overly despair or lose sight of the bigger picture. Instead, prowl for silver linings and grasp the nascent opportunities from the chaos. That the Covid-19 and Ukraine crises bolstered the need for hi-tech food production and alternative energy sources is a case in point.

Third, learn from the shocks, failures and mistakes suffered by oneself, and where possible, by others. A growth mindset helps one to grow after each adversity but there are many more lessons that can be internalised from the trials and tribulations of others. For example, startup founders tend to learn the success stories of founders or from their own mishaps. They could even gain more mileage by studying the failures of other startups and avoiding similar errors.

Be antifragile and you will make chaos your best friend, instead of your worst enemy.

The writer is the principal, Future-Ready and senior principal strategist at SPH Media.