Blinken is in Asia, but his mind's on Ukraine

SOUTH-EAST Asia is the highlight of United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken's latest world trip this week, yet his mind is very much on Ukraine and the potential Russian invasion of that country.

Blinken is increasingly concerned that the world is at a dangerous strategic juncture, which some commentators believe may be the worst since the Cuban Missile Crisis in the 1960s, which could see not just Moscow raising tensions in East Europe.

Other US competitors, including China and potentially Iran too, may potentially also take advantage of this disorder by challenging the status quo from Taiwan to nuclear diplomacy talks.

So these threats will be very much on his mind as he travels to the 3 largest nations in Asean - Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand - as part of his longest overseas trip yet as the US's top diplomat.

South-east Asia has become a strategic battleground between the US and China, the world's two largest economies with Beijing claiming most of the South China Sea, the key trade route that links the region, and has turned up military and political pressure on self-ruled Taiwan, which China considers its own territory.

The Biden team sees South-east Asia as vital to its efforts to push back against Beijing's growing power. However, it lacks a formal, fit-for-purpose, multilateral structure for economic engagement since former president Donald Trump exited the talks surrounding what became the Comprehensive and Progressive Transpacific Partnership - a move which has limited its ability to exert influence, while Beijing's only grows.

The administration is therefore thinking through what an alternative economic framework will entail, and Blinken has said that this should focus on trade facilitation, the digital economy, supply chain resiliency, infrastructure, clean energy, and worker standards, while also highlighting the opportunity for Asean nations to host US firms relocating production from China as part of efforts to secure sensitive supply chains and of development finance.

Not just building ties

At each stop this week, he will not just be building ties with these key states to what he hopes will become 'unprecedented levels', while securing backing for pressure on Myanmar's military rulers, and pushing back on China's increasing assertiveness in the region - following Washington's announcement of a diplomatic boycott of Beijing's Winter Olympics to protest against alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang.

On Monday (Dec 13) in Jakarta, which hosts Asean's headquarters, Blinken delivered a major speech on the significance of the Asia-Pacific to US foreign policy and highlighted the importance of ensuring freedom of navigation in the South China Sea where many nations have accused Beijing of encroachment.

In Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok on Tuesday and Wednesday, he will deliver similar messages.

Plus he will also convey US concerns about developments in Myanmar, where the military junta retook power shortly after the Biden administration took office, and convicted this month ex-state counsellor and minister of foreign affairs Aung San Suu Kyi on two charges in proceedings widely criticised as a new effort to roll back the democratic gains of recent years.

Challenging as this landscape is in Asia-Pacific, however, Blinken's biggest headache right now is Ukraine after US President Joe Biden warned Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in recent days about the consequences of a potential invasion. This was the key topic of conversation at the UK-hosted G7 foreign minister summit at the weekend and Friday.

Western intelligence estimates that Russia already has up to 100,000 troops positioned near the border with Ukraine, along with tanks and artillery. Washington has suggested that the force could rise to 175,000 by the end of January alongside some still missing elements needed to launch a successful invasion, including ammunition stocks, field hospitals and blood banks.

While Biden has ruled out putting US boots on the ground in Ukraine to deter Moscow, he has told Putin that invading the country would lead to unprecedented economic sanctions.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has hinted that 1 target would be Nord Stream 2, the new gas pipeline project from Russia to Germany, with Sullivan noting that 'If Vladimir Putin wants to see gas flow through that pipeline, he may not want to take the risk of invading Ukraine'.

In this context, and menacing as Russia's build-up is, nothing is yet set in stone. It should be remembered here that last Spring, Moscow launched a similar escalation at the Ukraine border with former deputy prime minister Dmitry Kozak warning of an intervention to help its citizens in eastern Ukraine as tensions rose in the region which has been a flashpoint since Russian-sympathising separatists seized swathes of territory there in 2014. This worried many in the West at the time, and former US ambassador to Ukraine Steve Pifer asserted that the situation was 'one step from war'.

Even if, as then, there is ultimately no Russia invasion, however, Blinken knows that the outlook for Washington's relations with Moscow is poor in the immediate term. Russia was one of the last major countries to acknowledge Biden's election victory last year, and Putin has previously expressed no great hopes for an improved relationship.

The Russian president perceives Western powers as trying to pick off Moscow and warns them frequently not to cross any red lines. In the current context, Moscow wants assurances that Ukraine will never be allowed to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato); that Nato members will have no permanent forces or infrastructure based in Ukraine; and for a halt to military exercises near Russia's border.

Defused tensions

Moscow and Washington will never 100 per cent agree on these issues given the widespread belief in the US that Ukraine has a right to make its own decisions as a sovereign nation, and that it is not willing to give Moscow a veto on Kiev's future. So the best that appears possible for the foreseeable future is defused tensions, and both sides aiming - where possible - for a more stable and predictable relationship during Biden's presidency.

At this time of geopolitical flux, such an outcome would come as a significant relief for the White House. For this would not just potentially de-escalate threats in Ukraine in the immediate term, but also may reduce the possibility of other competitors, including China and Iran, intensifying challenges on wider potential fronts.

The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics