Brexit process will be like protracted free trade talks

ON Nov 3, three judges in the High Court of Justice ruled that the UK Parliament must be consulted before Article 50 of the 2009 Treaty of Lisbon can be activated. The government has appealed to the Supreme Court, which is likely to hear the case in early December. Many people believed that the June 23 referendum result would mean immediate exit. It did not. The process for leaving is set out in Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. Notice is given for the desire to leave, and then the divorce settlement must be negotiated. The Council of Ministers, heads of governments and heads of state, excluding the applicant's, delegate negotiations to the European Commission president and Brussels administrators.

While the negotiations proceed, the UK otherwise remains a full European Union member. If terms are agreed, they must be accepted by the Council by a qualified majority and ratified by the European Parliament. A two-year deadline is set, but can be extended by a unanimous vote in the Council. Handing negotiations to the Commission will result in demands for a "hard Brexit".

Article 50 says nothing about whether the negotiations can be called off. It simply says that, if having left, a former member wishes to rejoin, it follows the procedures set for applicants in Article 49 and elsewhere. The notion that activating Article 50 is irrevocable is incorrect, as the clause's author, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, has made clear. If activating Article 50 were irrevocable, there is no need to require the agreement of members of parliament beforehand.