Brinkmanship over North Korea spells danger for the region

FINALLY, the "elephant in the room" - the looming threat of a North Korean nuclear or chemical weapon attack on Japan - has been acknowledged. Japanese newspapers ran front-page stories on Tuesday on preparations to deal with the potentially terrifying consequences of such an attack.

"Cities and prefectures prepare to deal with missile attacks", said The Japan Times in a typical headline, while Reuters reported "surging demand for nuclear shelters and radiation-blocking air purifiers" in recent days as "North Korea tension mounts".

The rest of the world has been studiously ignoring the threat of some sort of confrontation or conflagration in East Asia, resulting not only from the North Korea "threat" but also from the thousands of fighter jet scrambles and maritime incidents every year now between Japan and China. "Pretend the 'elephant' isn't there and it will go away" appears to be the prevailing mood, and meanwhile behave as though "business as usual" is the only way forward. But the elephant has not gone away. It has just gone on getting bigger and more menacing with every passing year. And now even more so, as a US aircraft carrier-led "armada" of ships enters Korean waters, with naval vessels from a complicit Japan joining them.

Pyongyang has threatened to "sink" the carrier USS Carl Vinson and as the vessel is powered by a couple of nuclear reactors, that is not a prospect to be relished. Neither is the fact that an official within the inner circle of US President Donald Trump's advisers has spoken of "vapourising" North Korea. The critical (possibly fatal) test will hinge upon whether North Korean leader Kim Jong-un decides to mark the 85th anniversary this week of the founding of the Korean People's Army with another missile test - and upon how US-led forces respond if he does.

If Mr Trump repeats the tactic he used to impress visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping by directing a barrage of ship-borne missiles at Syria and lobs some at North Korea, it is almost inconceivable that Pyongyang would not strike back - at the Carl Vinson, or South Korea or Japan. China would automatically be drawn in, and what follows at that point hardly bears thinking about, not excluding the possibility of World War III. Of course, none of the parties can relish this prospect and will try to avoid it. But brinkmanship has often spilled over into confrontation before, even if unintentionally.

"North Korea is a big world problem and it is a problem that we have to finally solve," Mr Trump reportedly told a meeting with UN Security Council ambassadors, including those of China and Russia, at the White House this week, adding that "the status quo in North Korea is unacceptable". Bold talk. But that status quo has helped preserve an admittedly precarious peace in North-east Asia for decades. Former US president Barack Obama's policy of "strategic patience" with North Korea contributed to this. Mr Trump's swaggering impatience could end that delicate peace.

The solution to the North Korea issue lies not in confrontation but in US willingness to replace the armistice it has had with North Korea since 1953 with a formal peace treaty. Until then, the United States remains formally at war with North Korea, which is forced literally onto the defensive. Meanwhile, the broader message to the wider world is that there are several elephants in the North-east Asian room or theatre of war as it could become. Stop ignoring Japan-China, US-China and South Korea threats is the clear message. Pressure them all to put their houses in order.

READ MORE: N-E Asia on high alert for further N Korean threats