Can America and China avoid Thucydides's Trap?
War between established and rising powers such as the United States and China is not inevitable, but predictability is crucial
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Stockholm
CHINA'S rise and the relative decline of the United States have produced a plethora of books. Among the most prominent is Graham Allison's Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? While far from flawless, the book has undoubtedly succeeded in sharpening our focus.
Thucydides was a general and historian in ancient Greece, and his History of the Peloponnesian War is regarded as the first major historical work. He maintains that the 27-year war, from 431 to 403 BC, was a consequence of the anxiety that Athens's rise caused in Sparta, an ascending power challenging an established power: It was "the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable". This sentence inspired the term "Thucydides's Trap", launching Mr Allison's project at Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - identifying 16 major power rivalries during the last 500 years between a ruling and emerging power, 12 of which led to war.
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