China-Japan spat over islands: risk of escalation running high

AT this time of year, the rumble of distant thunder can often be heard in Tokyo as storms lurk menacingly in the Sea of Japan or the Pacific Ocean. But this year, that rumble is one of threatened confrontation between China and Japan over territorial and maritime issues. The threat of a storm seems to grow ever nearer.

That prospect may appear remote to some. How, they might ask, could the world's second and third largest economies - China and Japan respectively, that are deeply dependent upon each other in terms of trade and investment - possibly be foolish enough to contemplate a military confrontation?

It will not be a "contemplated" event, however, so much as an accident of the kind that is waiting to happen as the two East Asian giants play increasingly dangerous games with each other. Until a year or two ago, both sides limited these games to boat "bumping" at sea and aircraft "buzzing".