Could Bernie become the next US president?

LET us go back four years when then-leading Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, with her remarkable political and policy experience, the favourite of her party's establishment, unlimited sources of funds, and the best political consultants in the world, was facing a serious challenge from an elderly Jew with a strong New York accent who was not even a card-carrying member of the Democratic Party - a self-proclaimed socialist who represented a small New England state Vermont, Senator Bernie Sanders.

Recall that the Mainstream Media and the pundits, the pollsters and political strategists regarded Senator Sanders as a political joke or at best, as an election campaign anecdote, not very different from the way they described another ageing New Yorker who was trying at the same time to win the Republican Party's presidential nomination. You know, "Are you kidding? There is no way this guy is going to win the nomination, not to mention getting elected as president."

But notwithstanding these predictions, Mr Sanders succeeded in drawing thousands of enthusiastic supporters to his rallies, raising millions of dollars, and winning 23 primaries and caucuses and some 46 per cent of pledged delegates to Mrs Clinton's 54 per cent, leading some analysts to conclude that if it was not for the assistance that the former Secretary of State was receiving from the party leaders, Mr Sanders could have won the Democratic nomination.

Moreover, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted in May 2016 found that Mrs Clinton and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump were in a "dead heat", and that if Candidate Sanders were the Democratic nominee, 53 per cent of voters would support him to 39 per cent for Candidate Trump.

Indeed, some fans of Senator Sanders, and even quite a few pollsters, speculated that Mr Sanders would have had a better chance than Mrs Clinton to beat Mr Trump in 2016. The fervent economic populist with a powerful anti-globalism message seemed to be successfully courting that segment of the electorate - white blue-collar workers in the de-industrialised areas of the country - who eventually handed the New York billionaire his victory in November.

It is therefore quite perplexing why since he announced his second run for the presidency last year, the same geniuses who had written his political obituary and that of Mr Trump in 2016, have been treating Mr Sanders' candidacy again as an election campaign sideshow.

This time, former vice-president Joe Biden has replaced Mrs Clinton as the leading Democratic presidential candidate and has been designated by the Mainstream Media as the moderate and "safe" politician - the only one who could win the votes of Middle America and beat the Republican candidate. The other Democratic candidates, including Mr Sanders, had the impossible task of proving the pundits wrong.

Yet this kind of punditry seemed to neglect the enormous impact that Mr Sanders' candidacy in 2016 had on the political direction and makeup of the Democratic Party, more specifically in terms of the expanding influence of the progressive wing of the party.

Now that almost all the other Democratic candidates have embraced Mr Sanders' message on redistributing wealth from the rich to the middle class and poor, socialising the nation's healthcare system, providing free college education, investing trillions of US dollars in dealing with the challenge of climate change, and making major cuts in the defence budget, it is easy to forget that four years ago these ideas were considered too radical for the average Democratic voter. These days they are backed by a majority of Democrats, and certainly by those who are expected to take part in the coming presidential caucuses and primaries.

Ironically, Mr Sanders' success in influencing the Democratic Party's agenda may explain the meteoric rise of another progressive Democratic presidential candidate, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Despite her efforts to distinguish herself from the "socialist" Vermont Senator by tagging herself as a "capitalist" and "reformist", she has adopted many of the ideas that "Bernie" has introduced, including by calling for nationalising the entire private healthcare industry and for breaking up the big high-tech companies.

RUNNING EVEN

In a way, Senators Warren and Sanders are now dividing the progressive vote in the Democratic Party's primaries between themselves and running almost even in some of the states, usually behind Mr Biden who continues still to lead in most of the opinion polls.

Hence according to Realclearpolics.com computations of the polls results, former vice-president Biden is leading with 28.4 per cent of the Democratic primary voters, Mr Sanders is in second place with 20.4 per cent of the vote, followed by Ms Warren with 14.8 per cent.

Ms Warren seemed to be gaining momentum for a while, but has lost some support recently while Mr Sanders has been able to maintain his electoral base, in particular, among the majority of young Democratic voters. Ms Warren responded to the trend by trying to weaken her rival's support among women voters, suggesting that Mr Sanders did not believe that a woman candidate can win a general presidential election, a charge that he denied.

At some point in the campaign, one of these two progressive candidates would be forced to drop from the race, with the result that one of them is likely to face off Mr Biden in the fight over the nomination.

Under such a scenario, if Mr Sanders is the last progressive survivor, he may have a better than 50 per cent chance of beating the uninspiring and phlegmatic Mr Biden - a symbol of the status quo - by employing his aggressive populist message, mobilising his enthusiastic supporters and winning the Democratic nomination.

Mr Sanders could then try to bring back home the white-blue collar voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan, who had deserted the Democrats in 2016 to vote for Mr Trump, by convincing them that he is even more of an economic nationalist and anti-globalist than the current White House occupant.

And that may not be a mission impossible according to the opinion polls who show the socialist from Vermont and the real-estate tycoon from New York running neck-to-neck in some of the electorally strategic states.

That kind of scenario would unfold only if the Democrats decide to desert Mr Biden, the presidential candidate who, according to most political professionals, has the best chance of defeating Mr Trump in November, and instead select an assertive left-wing populist to challenge their nemesis, a belligerent right-wing nationalist.

That kind of scenario would unfold only if the Democrats . . . select an assertive left-wing populist to challenge their nemesis, a belligerent right-wing nationalist.