Could scenario planning have saved Robinsons?

CONSIDERING Singapore's proud history as a trading nation it is perhaps sad, and a little ominous, that Robinsons is shuttering its stores forever. Set up in 1858, Robinsons is an iconic department store intimately tied to Singapore's history. But the business world does not dwell on sentimentality and Robinsons joins a long list of well-known retailers that have succumbed to the pressures of Covid-19 worldwide - Debenhams in the UK being another one of them.

The causes of this unprecedented collapse of the retail sector are well documented: the changing buying patterns of consumers; weak demand during Covid-19; inability to pay rentals; supply chain and global trade disruptions; among other reasons. So, what lessons can future retail leaders learn from this turn of events? Perhaps the foremost lesson from the perspective of strategic decision-making is to revisit existing approaches on risk assessment and consider alternative approaches to develop resiliency from future shocks.

An approach worth considering is that of scenario planning - a process successfully used by Singapore's policymakers as well as numerous other governments, energy companies and the military to tame or soften the blow of "wicked problems".