Covid-19 pandemic may cause another stormy decade

THE World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) are gearing up for this week's annual spring meetings - this year conducted virtually - from Friday to Sunday. Amid one of the most rapid deteriorations in the global economy since at least the Great Depression, concerns are growing not just about the financial outlook, but also whether this might herald a new wave of political turbulence in the 2020s.

Worries about the growing prospect of political disorder has already been voiced by the United Nations - the IMF and World Bank's fellow supranational organisation - with secretary-general António Guterres warning late last week that the pandemic is threatening "an increase in social unrest and violence that would undermine our ability to fight the disease" in the biggest ever challenge for the organisation in its 75-year history. Specifically, he highlighted pressing issues that could spark disorder as including: postponing of elections or referenda; the pandemic "triggering or exacerbating human rights challenges"; erosion of trust in public institutions; and wider uncertainty that could see further division and turmoil in some societies.

Of course, the potential for disorder is likely to be magnified as the economic crisis worsens. Here the news is not good with the International Labour Organization warning that the pandemic will result in the loss of around 200 million jobs worldwide, and drastically cut the income of another 1.25 billion people.