Don't expect more than a lull in the Sino-American trade war

WITH Chinese and American negotiators reportedly close to concluding a trade deal, President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump are expected to proceed to sign a formal agreement when they meet for a summit in Florida later this month.

Since the outcome of the negotiations will depend very much on decisions made by the mercurial US leader, a lot could yet change on the Sino-American front before the meeting between the two leaders takes place in Mar-a-Lago, the Palm Beach resort that the Trump family owns. But at this stage there are reasons to be a bit optimistic since it seems that the self-proclaimed economic nationalist occupying the White House, who has been the main force driving the trade war between the world's two largest economies, may have concluded that he would probably not be able to extract more concessions from Beijing before the US presidential campaign commences in full force early next year.

From that perspective, Mr Trump has probably recognised that continuing to play chicken with the Chinese in unending trade battles was bound to continue rattling the stock market and at some point could have a negative impact on the US economy - just as the president tries to win re-election by touting his success in sustaining a booming economy.