Economic reality is set to box Mario Draghi into a corner

London

THE European Central Bank policy could have ended its year with a non-event on Thursday, merely filling in the gaps left after October's decision to curb quantitative easing from January. Instead, policy makers are poised to unveil new growth and inflation estimates that will prove fundamental in dictating how next year unfolds.

At least six of the 25 governing council members have already called for QE to end in September, when the current extension is scheduled to expire. The hawks are pushing for greater emphasis on the ECB's forward guidance on interest rates. And the economic backdrop suggests they should win the argument.