An energy crisis and geopolitics are creating a new-look Gulf

IN 8 weeks roughly 1 million football fans will descend on Qatar for the World Cup, many of them travelling via neighbouring cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi. They will find a Gulf in the middle of a US$3.5 trillion energy bonanza, courtesy of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Western politicians facing a cost-of-living crisis are once again paying homage to the royalty of the fossil-fuel economy. Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, is due to visit this week (Sep 24); in July President Joe Biden fist-bumped Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, a country he had branded a pariah for its human-rights abuses.

The latest oil and gas boom is taking place alongside deeper trends: a re-engineering of global energy flows in response to Western sanctions and climate change, and the remaking of geopolitical alliances in the Middle East as it adapts to a multipolar world in which America is no longer a reliable guarantor of security. The result is a new-look Gulf that is destined to remain pivotal for decades to come. Whether it will be a source of stability, though, is far from clear.

The Gulf states belong to a region that has had a dreadful 2 decades. Amid wars and uprisings, a million people have died violently in the Middle East and its share of world gross domestic product (GDP) has dropped from 4 per cent in 2012 to 3 per cent. America has cut its military presence following the debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, leaving old allies, including the Gulf states, fearful of a security vacuum filled by Iran and its proxies.