Europe enters a pivotal year

JANUS, the Roman god of transitions and doorways who stood at the turning of the year, was traditionally depicted with two faces, one looking to the past and one to the future. At this time of the year, there is a small industry in the media of people echoing Janus, as commentators reflect on the past 12 months and make their predictions for the next.

For some, it is also a time to recall past predictions. Forecasters may choose to either parade their foresightedness or explain away misses. The exercise is often more one of selective memory than anything else.

Every now and then the media must confess to a more than usually widespread failure. 2016 was one such occasion. Regardless of how many of last year's predictions came true or not, they all read now like the glowing preview of the maiden voyage of the Titanic, whose main point was that "the catering will be superb". It was, but the article missed a "minor detail": half way across the Atlantic, the ship hit an iceberg and sank.