MARKETS remain sceptical about the prospects of a new nuclear deal between Iran and the West, but the odds may be more significant than many assume. This, despite the recent US indictment of an Iranian man on charges of plotting to kill former White House national security adviser John Bolton, and the knife attack on novelist Salman Rushdie.

On Aug 8 , European Union foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell announced a “final” text of a nuclear deal with Iran that the bloc said was non-negotiable. Borrell stated that there was now no more room for negotiation, and that “political decisions” had to be made in Washington and Teheran.

While a deal is still not entirely on the cards, there is a growing, non-trivial possibility this could happen, potentially moving markets and recalibrating the geopolitical landscape. One implication of a revival of the 2015 nuclear accord could see oil prices fall further given that markets don’t seem to believe an agreement will - ultimately - be reached.