Europe’s tectonic plates shifting, post-Ukraine invasion 

SOME 100 days since Russia invaded Ukraine, it is increasingly clear that the war is shifting the economic and political tectonic plates of Europe.  This will have lasting impacts for the continent, from North to South, and East to West.  

In Northern Europe, the future military policy reverberations have been particularly keenly felt. Last Wednesday, Denmark voted overwhelmingly, in a landmark referendum, to end a three-decade old opt-out clause that kept it from participating in the EU’s common defence policy.  Meanwhile, Sweden and Finland have applied for NATO membership.  

Important as this military dynamic is in Northern Europe, however, the most important overall development may be in the East where that sub-region’s growing importance in the continent has been accelerated by Russia’s invasion. This is not just because these nations have been hardest hit by the conflict in several respects, including from the refugee wave.  More broadly, the war has accentuated a process already underway that is seeing political and economic influence in Europe seep eastwards. 

 To be sure, France and Germany remain the EU’s most influential countries in the still preponderant West of the continent. However, that is changing for a number of reasons, including the growing economic weight of Central and Eastern Europe. Two decades on from the accession of the first eight Central and Eastern nations to the EU, there is growing economic convergence with West Europe.   

Politically too, key Central and Eastern states have growing strategic importance, including through blocs such as the ‘Bucharest 9’ which meets this week.  To be sure, some leaders of these nations, including Hungary under Prime Minister Victor Orban, have assumed significant controversy with their populist stances.     

However, other national leaders such as Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas are more constructively setting the agenda at top European summits.  Meanwhile, key appointees in Brussels are making their mark such as Valdis Dombrovskis from Latvia who is executive vice-president of the European Commission in charge of trade. The growing influence of Eastern and Central states has not just been noticed within Europe. Multiple foreign powers, including China, are paying the region increased interest, including promoting its ‘Belt and Road’ initiative (BRI).  Numerous states have already signed BRI agreements, including Croatia, Czechia, and Hungary.   

In this context, Brussels is concerned about the possibility of external parties ‘dividing and ruling’ to undermine the continent’s collective interests. That is why the European Commission is pushing its own integration agenda post-Ukraine, sensing an opportunity to drive forward ‘ever closer union’. Take the example of defence where there is a growing push towards a stronger pan-European agenda in this area. 

This is also being promoted by key national leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. In her previous post as German defence minister, she backed plans for a European army so the continent can react more credibly to threats to peace. Meanwhile, Macron asserts that the recent AUKUS deal between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States underlines why Europe must work together more in this area.   

So Russia’s invasion is changing, significantly, the landscape across the continent. At this historic moment, now is the time for Brussels to step up to the plate by offering a bloc-wide, bold vision to meet the continent’s growing challenges and opportunities.